Most of the information we use now is obtained free ... and there is no way of knowing anymore whether the information on which we base our own information for distribution is true or false. But that doesn't seem to matter; all that matters is that the information comes from a reputable source.
Make a suggestion or assumption and let them tell you you're wrong. People also have a need to feel smarter than you are.
Do not assume more variables than necessary.
The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong.